What has made the soybean market jump?

From March 1^st to June 14^th the November soybean market has gone from $8.70 bu to $11.49 bu, what is the cause? There is a strong buying interest with concerns over South American supplies, this has been driving demand from importers to the US, creating a higher CBOT value.  Another potential reason is Argentina has experienced a rain delayed harvest.  This has delayed the release of the South American crop to the market.  Also the heavy rains have damaged the prospects for harvest quality and volume.

The soybean ending stocks for 2015/16 was projected at 370 million bu down 30 million from last month. The projected ending stocks for 2016/17 are reduced 45 million bu to 260 million bu because of lower beginning stocks and increased exports.

For the US grower season there still has not been a regional or national weather scare.  The NOAA 90 day outlook predicts the Midwest region to be below average in moisture.  It also is predicting above average temperatures for the Midwest during the 3 month growing season.  If NOAA is correct we may have our weather scare that may push the soybean price to a new 24 month high.

-Tom McGinn